NavAir Risk Management Guide

2.6.4.2 Risk Identification Activity.

To identify risk events, IPTs should break down program elements to a level where they, or subject matter experts, can perform valid assessments. The information necessary to do this varies according to the phase of the program. During the early phases, requirement, threat documents, and acquisition plans may be the only program-specific data available. They should be analyzed to identify events that may have adverse consequences/impacts. A useful initial identification exercise is to perform a mission profile for the system as suggested in DoD 4245.7-M, Transition from Development to Production. Using this methodology, the developer creates a functional and environmental profile for the system and examines the low-level requirements that the system must meet to satisfy its mission requirements. The IPTs may then study these requirements to determine which are critical. For example, in an aircraft profile, it may be apparent that high speed is critical. If the speed requirement is close to that achieved by existing aircraft, this may not be a concern. However, if the speed is greater than that achieved by today’s aircraft, it may be a critical risk area. Since aircraft speed depends, among other things, on weight and engine thrust, it would be desirable to enlist the help of a materials expert to address weight and an engine expert to assess engine-associated risk.

Another method of decomposition is to create a WBS as early as possible in a program. Figure 2-5 is a simple example of a decomposition based on the WBS for an aircraft. The figure shows an important requirement of the decomposition process, the establishment of goals (e.g., don’t exceed the weight budget or objective). Risk events are determined by matching each WBS element and process to sources or areas of risk. Risk areas/sources are described in Paragraph 2.4.2 and Table 4-2.

During decomposition, risk events are identified from experience, brainstorming, lessons learned from similar programs, and guidance contained in the risk management plan. A structured approach previously discussed matches each WBS element and process in terms of sources or areas of risk. The examination of each element against each risk area is an exploratory exercise to identify the critical risks. The investigation may show that risks are interrelated. For example, the weight of an aircraft affects its speed, but also impacts the payload, range, and fuel requirements. These have design and logistics consequences/impacts and may even affect the number of aircraft that must be procured to meet objectives.